The U.S. Exports Death & Fat Asses
The guns & butter policy is sustaining the U.S. economy, for now.
It’s impossible to read the news without a slurry of economic shame pieces from Democratic lackeys being printed daily. They say the economy is doing great while people line up for soup kitchens and start GoFundMe drives to pay for their medical bills.
If you haven’t heard the term “soft landing” by now, then you aren’t paying attention to the propaganda. Inflation is eating away at the vast majority’s disposable income. While the rate of inflation is going down, if you buy goods in the world today they are demonstrably more expensive than four years ago.
How are people affording the skyrocketing inflation? Well they are swiping those credit cards left and right. U.S. households now have 40% of their outstanding debt on credit cards, according to Wells Fargo. That article goes on to mention that credit card debt peaked in 2008 right before the last market crash and recession. An ominous warning.
Everything is fine, no need to panic is the message disseminated daily via the corporate media. Don’t believe your lying eyes, everything is booming.
Now the economic numbers that the government keeps touting to show the economy is in good shape are GDP and unemployment figures. The latest report showed that the unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% from 3.9% in the month of November and the economy added 199,000 jobs, of which healthcare (77,000) and government (49,000) account for the bulk of those gains.
GDP printed at 5.2% in Q3 inside the United States, a huge number in any circumstances. If we dive into the details, the growth does not appear to be sustainable.
One interesting aside in the GDP figures (nerd alert: I read the fiscal charts) was motor vehicle output at a -6.8% for Q3 comparative to the prior quarter. This dragged down the final GDP number by 0.3% on its own.
Exporting Death
If you break down the reason for the huge GDP gains, most of it comes from the defense industry. Defense exports posted an 8.2% increase over the prior quarter. It should not shock you that being the arms supplier for two wars, one in Ukraine and the other in Israel, boosted the gross domestic product in the U.S. In other words, exporting death is our business and business is good.
The United States is the largest arms dealer in the world - 40% of all arms shipped around the world come from the U.S. Nobody even comes close, as Russia is a distant second at 16%. Killing is our business, and business is good. These figures were through 2022, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they shoot up higher for 2023.
In raw dollars, the U.S. exported $153.7 billion in arms in 2022. This was an increase of 48.6% from the prior year.
The fact that we have legalized selling lethal products (to our allies) does not excuse the consequences from those bombs, artillery shells, and small arms. Every dead human whose life was snuffed out by an American made weapon is part of our legacy. Our hands are covered in blood as that our taxes are paying for the carnage.
You can justify the dead bodies based on their political affiliation, calling them terrorists or enemy combatants, or excuse away innocent civilians caught up in the wreckage as collateral damage, but you can not deny that exerting our will on the geopolitical stage leads to violent deaths which would not occur without our arms being supplied.
Oil Boom
Apart from arms, oil and petroleum products are the biggest category of U.S. exports. If you add refined petroleum, gas, and crude together the total comes to $221.8 billion dollars for the fiscal year 2021.
Oil and gas production has increased since then and the fossil fuel industry shows no signs in letting up. Despite the partisan press labeling Biden as an environmentalist, he approved more new oil and gas wells for drilling in his first year as President than Trump by 34%.
While Biden talked a big game about reducing reliance on fossil fuels, in action he has done the complete opposite. This isn’t all bad, as the price of oil has stabilized recently due to the cuts from OPEC being offset by a ramp up in U.S. production.
U.S. crude and refined petroleum exports are at record levels.
The chart clearly shows that while production started ramping up from a stagnant level during George H. W. Bush’s presidency. It continued to accelerate through Obama, Trump, and now Biden. This is truly bi-partisan. Neither Republicans nor Democrats can take the credit or blame solely for the amount of oil we are sending around the world.
With the rapid warming of our planet due to the burning of these fossil fuels, this oil boom will contribute towards climate related deaths in the future.
Exporting Obesity
Proving the “fat asses” part of the clickbait title is more complicated, but you only need to travel overseas to notice what U.S. based retail businesses are successful in foreign markets - fast food and fast fashion.
Junk foods are also a staple export from the United States. Coke, Pepsi, and the other unhealthy products sold by those conglomerates and Mondelez (makers of Oreos and other snack foods) can be found in every convenience store worldwide.
The U.S. exports a wide variety of agricultural products around the world from a diverse basket of raw goods and processed food.
Grains (especially for animal feed), soybeans, livestock, fruits and vegetables are the bulk of raw food goods that are exported. China receives the majority of these exports with Mexico and Canada coming in behind them.
Still, it is the processed foods where most of the dollar based export trade is done. In 2022, the United States exported $38.17 in processed food.
NAFTA (signed by Clinton) and the USMCA (signed by Trump) have allowed these exports to double in the last decade and nearly quadruple to Canada and Mexico. Trade agreements matter.
Where the export gains are coming in processed goods should not surprise anyone: Processed ingredients, bakery goods, flavorings, supplements, cereals, confectionary goods, in addition to chocolates and cocoa products.
It’s no wonder that the entire world is facing an obesity epidemic.
Summary
So, I stand by the statement that I stole from a friend: the United States exports death and fat asses.
As I mentioned in my last economic post, the government is selectively choosing which data points to highlight in an attempt to brag about how great their policies are. We are one year out from a general election and highlighting the good aspects of the economy is necessary for Biden to secure reelection.
Reality is much more complicated. The economy is muddled. Plenty of people are doing better than ever and still more are struggling to survive. Don’t let a concerted propaganda effort convince you that your lived experience is invalid. If you are struggling, you are not alone.
We are still living in the K shaped recovery world, a phrase that was coined after the pandemic lockdown restrictions were removed. It just isn’t expedient for the media to point out all that the economic gains are going to a smaller and smaller section of the public.
Fear not, there is a long term plan: You will own nothing and be happy about it.